The women’s reservation bill sailed through the Lok Sabha on Wednesday night – 454 MPs voted in favour and two against – after hours of ferocious attack-counterattack between the government and the Opposition.
The bill will now be presented in the Rajya Sabha, 13 years after the Congress-led UPA government tabled its version of the proposed legislation. The bill is widely expected to clear this second and hurdle too, with the BJP confident of support from select opposition parties.
Home Minister Amit Shah told the Lok Sabha, “After elections (next year), soon census and delimitation exercise will take place. After this, there will be 1/3 women in this house.”
However, as opposition MPs pointed out, 33 per cent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state legislatures will not actually become a reality after the bill becomes law.
The Big Question – How Soon Can This Be Implemented?
The answer – almost certainly not before 2029. And, if political commentators like Swaraj India chief Yogendra Yadav are to be believed, “it may not happen till 2039”.
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NDTV will attempt to work out a tentative timeline, and we begin with the Home Minister’s rebuttal to opposition MPs’ questions on provisions requiring a census and delimitation (in that order) before the women’s quota bill is reality.
What Amit Shah Said On Census, Delimitation
Mr Shah shouted down the Opposition in his speech, declaring that a delimitation exercise was the only “transparent” way to decide which of the Lok Sabha’s 543 seat were to be reserved for women.
Census data, he added, is the “bedrock” on which such decisions should be made.
READ | Why Delay, Delimitation: Amit Shah On Opposition’s Big Women’s Quota Query
The next delimitation, per Article 82 of the Constitution, is after the first census post-2026. The next census is in 2031; one was to take place in 2021 but the Covid pandemic prevented those plans, and it is now expected to be started after the 2024 election.
Therefore, if the census cannot take place before 2027 and the delimitation must take place after (and the women’s reservation bill must wait on both), quotas mandating 33 per cent of India’s MPs be women will not happen after next year’s election, something the Opposition leaders, including the Congress’s Rahul Gandhi and the DMK’s Kanimozhi, have demanded.
Delimitation Ahead Of Schedule?
The delimitation exercise can take place sooner, but that requires Article 82 to be amended.
However, southern states – more successful in controlling their population – have voiced concerns over reduced representation following redrawing of constituencies based on population figures.
READ | NDTV Explainer: What Is Women’s Reservation Bill
Essentially, they fear states that failed to control population will have more control over the government and greater influence in deciding policies, as well as get more funds from the centre.
Women’s Reservation In 2039?
This morning, Mr Yadav posted on X (formerly Twitter) to caution against “misleading” media reports, highlighting “the real significance of the delimitation clause” and stating “actually, it (implementation of the women’s bill) may not happen till 2039”.
“Article 82 (amended in 2001) virtually bars delimitation prior to the first census figures post 2026. That can only be 2031. Most observers don’t remember delimitation takes three to four years (last one took five) to give its final report,” he began.
Media reports say Women’s reservation would happen in 2029. This is misleading. Actually it may not happen till 2039.
Most media reports miss the real significance of the delimitation clause.
Article 82 (amended in 2001) virtually bars delimitation prior to the first census…— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) September 20, 2023
“Besides, the coming delimitation can be very contentious given the population ratio changes. So we are looking at a report around 2037 or so… that can only be implemented in 2039.”
What Does The Woman’s Bill Say?
The six-page bill says a third of seats in Lok Sabha and state Assemblies will be reserved for women and filled by direct election. This quota will not apply to the Rajya Sabha or state legislative councils.
Within the quota, a third of the seats will be for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.
The bill does not include reservation for OBCs as such a provision does not exist for the legislature. This is the demand over which the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal opposed the bill earlier, and over which the opposition did again today.
READ | On Women’s Bill, Sonia Gandhi, Kanimozhi Lead Charge, Smriti Irani Replies
The reservations guaranteed by the bill will be in force for 15 years after it becomes law, but its term can be extended. Importantly, the reserved seats will be rotated after each delimitation exercise.
